The Atlanta Braves actually hit the ball harder and more often than the Tampa Bay Rays in their first two games, yet they lost both matchups by wide margins. This weird result happened because the Rays turned batted balls into outs at a rate that defies normal logic. According to Battery Power, Atlantahad 11 batted ball outs at 95+ mph Tuesday and 12 more Wednesday, showing how much hard contact turned into outs.
Rays players hit the ball with less expected quality but still scored runs like crazy. Tampa Bay’s hitters in that same game had an xwOBA of .326 yet posted a .426 wOBA. They hit the ball just right to beat the defense, while Atlanta’s hard hits found gloves. The second game showed the same scary trend. The Braves generated a .336 xwOBA but only a .197 wOBA, while the Rays out-hit them in reality despite having a lower expected value. It felt like the universe was trying to balance the books for a team leading the division with mediocre offensive stats.
Pitching Struggles Add to the Chaos
AJ Smith-Shawver could not escape the trouble in the series opener on Tuesday. He lasted only 3 1/3 innings and gave up four runs on five hits. The Rays scored early and often, with Junior Caminero hitting a two-out solo shot in the first inning. Liam Hicks followed with a two-run homer in the third, and Victor Mesa Jr. added an RBI single to make it 4-1. Since his return to the majors, Smith-Shawver has surrendered three or more runs over five or fewer innings in all four of his most recent starts.
Brent Suter tried to stop the bleeding by pitching 3 2/3 innings and allowing just one unearned run. Elieser Hernández took the loss after surrendering two runs over his final two innings. The Braves bullpen could not save the day as the Rays scored again in the eighth and ninth innings. Yandy Diaz and Richie Palacios both hit solo homers to seal the 7-1 victory for Tampa Bay. The Braves managed to get three hits in their first four at-bats but went cold for the rest of the game.
Peréz Delivers When It Counts
Things finally turned around on Thursday when Martín Pérez took the mound. He wore a hat and sunglasses while changing the music in the clubhouse, signaling a calm before the storm. Pérez pitched seven scoreless innings, allowing only four hits to keep the Rays off the board. This was only the 13th time in his career he has thrown seven or more scoreless innings, and the second time in just over a month. Although he issued two walks, he dodged a bases-loaded crisis after Chandler Simpson hit into a double play.
The offense woke up in the eighth inning to secure the win. Austin Riley and Ha-Seong Kim both drove in runs with key hits. With one out, Ozzie Albies entered from the bench and hit a triple to ignite the comeback. The two-RBI single from Kim proved to be the difference in the 3-1 victory. This win stopped a three-game losing streak and improved the Braves’ lead over the Phillies to 3 1/2 games. Walt Weiss had plenty to say about the tough schedule before the series started. During the pregame press conference, he stated to reporters, “I don’t know how much more battle-tested we need to be.”
Now the Braves face a weekend set with the Phillies that could decide the division.
