The Atlanta Braves have a golden chance to win a series against a bad team, yet the pressure sits squarely on the bats. Martin Perez takes the mound Saturday at 4:10 p.m. ET with a 3.12 ERA that hides his true struggles. He has pitched 115.1 innings so far this season, but his predictive metrics sit in the low to mid-4s. That gap between his earned run average and his actual performance is massive. It means he has been lucky, and luck often runs out against even a weak lineup.
The Pitcher Matchup Favors Atlanta
Ryan Feltner will start for the Colorado Rockies, and his numbers are a nightmare for any pitcher. According to Battery Power, Feltner holds a 5.53 FIP and a 4.98 xFIP over 97.2 innings this season. He also walks nearly four batters per nine innings, which creates a dangerous ratio for the Rockies.
Feltner has found some success only when he limits walks, but his pitch mix lacks the stuff to dominate. Grant Holmes delivered average velocity on his fastball with below average shape, while his slider features fine movement and is thrown hard. To round out Holmes’ arsenal, he blends a solid sweeper with a curve and a sinker. This profile tells the Braves exactly what they need to do: hit the ball hard. Reports indicate that Feltner’s changeup lacks significant horizontal movement while displaying strong vertical break, rendering it simpler to make solid contact with. The Braves should be hitting this guy all day long.
Can The Bats Finally Show Up?
The real story here is not about the pitchers, but the lack of run support for Martin Perez. He has gotten away with a 3.12 ERA through sheer fortune for productive innings. Essentially scattered across the strike zone are his location heatmap on his sinker and cutter. That kind of luck cannot last forever, especially when the team behind him fails to score. Behind Grant Holmes, the Braves took care of business on Friday night, yet they require more offense to secure a series win.
The Rockies are bad enough that, per Battery Power, it could very plausibly live another day for Perez. The window is open, but the bats must seize it. If the offense continues to struggle, this favorable matchup turns into a loss that hurts the team’s momentum. The game is set for Truist Park in Atlanta, GA, on Saturday, August 29. The fans will be there to watch, hoping the team finally gets the support its pitcher needs.
The odds are heavily stacked in favor of an Atlanta victory based on the numbers.
