The Atlanta Braves are back on the horse, but they are limping. A 10-5 record in their final 15 games of July looks great on paper, yet the underlying numbers tell a different story. Per Battery Power, the team actually produced a combined 3.5 fWAR in those games, which usually suggests an 8-7 split. They won more than they should have. That kind of gap between results and performance is a warning sign, not a victory lap.
The Offense Finally Woke Up
For months, the lineup struggled to find a rhythm. June was a disaster, and July started with mediocrity. But the bats finally came alive after the All-Star break. For that span, the Braves placed sixth in fWAR while ranking seventh in both runs and wRC+. They also posted the league’s fourth-biggest xwOBA overperformance. This shift from underperforming to overperforming is huge. They moved from the eighth-biggest underperformance early in the season to the fifth-biggest overperformance in July. That is a massive change in how the team hits.
After the break, they secured three consecutive series victories, notably winning three of four games against the Padres at home. Truist Park has not seen a home series win against San Diego since 2018. That is a long time to wait. The offense is finally doing what the coach needs it to do. They had the fifth-highest wOBA and the ninth-highest xwOBA. The players are making contact and driving the ball. This is the kind of production that wins championships.
The Pitching Staff Is Still A Mess
While the hitters are swinging well, the pitching staff is barely holding on. The team narrowly escaped a bottom-five performance, but the FIP was stung by a high home run rate. The staff finished 21st in xFIP- but 26th in FIP-. They also sat 21st in ERA-. This is a weird and dangerous spot to be in. The rotation was middling for two weeks, and the bullpen was one of the worst in the league.
Some of the bullpen struggles were due to specific bad decisions. The team let Connor Thomas eat a blowout loss and kept Tyler Kinley on the roster. Raisel Iglesias and JR Ritchie also gave up some costly homers. These are not just random bad luck moments. These are roster and usage issues that need fixing. If the bullpen cannot hold leads, the offense will have to carry the whole team every night. That is a heavy load.
The Braves are winning close games and leaving their terrible performances for hopeless contests. They are finding ways to survive. But luck is not a strategy. You cannot rely on being “punished for crimes of unclear provenance” and expect to go deep into October. The team needs to fix the pitching before the playoffs start. The window is open, but the foundation is shaky. For background, see Cam Caminiti’s Dominant Pitching Shows Braves Farm Is Ready.
Can the Braves sustain this level of winning with a bullpen that looks this broken? Or will the bad luck catch up to them when it matters most?
